2Bull Forex Blog

The Forex trading market is an around-the-clock cash market where the currencies of nations are bought and sold, typically via brokers. Forex prices can change at any moment in response to real-time events, such as political unrest or the rate of inflation. Currency market players typically use “Forex analysis” as a means of predicting currency price movements. Forex analysis is divided into two types: fundamental and technical. A fundamental analysis uses economic and political factors as a means of predicting currency movements. A technical analysis uses reliable historical data as a means of forecasting these movements. The purpose of this article is to discuss the basics of fundamental and technical analysis.

A fundamental analysis uses economic and political factors, such as housing starts, the unemployment rate, or inflation, as a means of predicting currency movements. Fundamental analysis is concerned with the reasons for currency movements. Many Forex traders who rely on fundamental analysis plan their trading strategies around a number of U.S. Government economic indicators. Some of these indicators are the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Employment Situation Report, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the Composite Index of Leading Indicators, the Advance Report on Durable Goods, Housing Starts, and Initial Jobless Claims.

All of these Federal economic indicators have a marked effect on the Forex trading market. Some of these indicators are released weekly, while others are released monthly or quarterly. Their sources include the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), and the U.S. Census Bureau.

Forex traders must take other economic indicators into consideration as well. The world’s leading economies (for example, the United Kingdom, Japan, France, and Germany) also release their own economic indicators that will have an impact on the Forex market. For example, common economic indicators in the United Kingdom include Housing Prices, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Vehicles per 1,000 People, Telephones per 1,000 People, and the Percentage of People Employed in Agriculture.

A technical analysis uses historical data as a means of predicting currency movements. The technical analyst believes that history repeats itself over and over again. Technical analysis is not concerned with the reasons for currency movements (for example, interest rates or inflation). Instead, it believes that historical currency movements are a clear indication of future ones. The technical analyst typically uses charts as a tool in predicting currency price movements.

Investopedia states that “In a shopping mall, a fundamental analyst would go to each store, study the product that was being sold, and then decide whether to buy it or not. By contrast, a technical analyst would sit on a bench in the mall and watch people go into the stores. Disregarding the intrinsic value of the products in the store, his or her decision would be based on the patterns or activity of people going into each store.”

For example, during the back-to-school buying season, the technical analyst might observe that more people are going into clothing stores than into stores selling flowers. Likewise, the technical analyst might observe that more men are going into stores selling flowers on Valentine’s Day than into clothing stores.

Here is another example. Oil prices dramatically increase, thus creating inflation. Interest rates rise as a means of controlling inflation. One historical result of higher interest rates is less money to spend, thus slowing economic growth. Another historical result is increased foreign investment in the currency affected by the higher interest rates, thus strengthening it.

Some Forex traders depend on fundamental analysis while others depend on technical analysis. However, many successful Forex traders use a combination of both strategies. The important point to remember here is that no one strategy or combination of strategies is 100% certain.

In Forex day trading you see many systems that have fantastic track records in back testing, yet they can never match this performance in real time and the trader wipes out his equity.

The reason for this is the concept of curve fitting - if you don’t understand its significance you will lose.

Many traders buy hypothetical track records, or devise their own by running their signals over past data and any track record in day trading is curve fitted.

Why?

Day trading by its very nature doesn’t work.

You never get a real time track record of profits, so any track record has to be curve fitted to make a profit.

So what is curve fitting?

It means fitting the trading signals to the data ( you can of course do this on past data as you know the closing prices ) and making sure that the track record is profitable.

It’s very similar to shooting at a barn door and then drawing a circle around each one, after the shots are fired to amok them all bulls eyes.

Of course bending the system to fit the data doesn’t work and profitability is simply an illusion.

Examples of curve fitted systems are

Ones with lots of rules and parameters, or unique rules and parameters for different trading conditions, or contracts.

If you curve fit a system, be it in day trading or long term trend following, it will lose.

No reliable data

Day traders have to curve fit in hindsight to make a profit, as in real time volatility is random and its impossible to predict price direction.

To make money in any form of trading you need to play the odds and you can’t do that in day trading.

When you buy one of those enticing day trading systems offering you 100% profits or 70% success rates ask for the real time track record and you won’t get one.

The one presented to you is hypothetical and done knowing the closing prices and has been curve fitted.

Try and trade any day trading system from a vendor in real time and you can kiss goodbye to your account equity. Don’t fall for the hype of day trading systems see the reality, which is a sure fire way to lose all your money quickly.

The Foreign exchange market or forex market occurs wherever one foreign currency is traded for another. It is the largest market in the world with daily trading of US $1.9 billion. Individuals actually make up a very small part of this market and when they do participate they do so through a broker or other professional trader. In order to play the trading game, one must know how to forex forecast correctly. There are two major ways to do this: technical analysis and fundamental analysis.

To forex forecast using technical analysis, you must understand a variety of technical analysis tools. Such tools include the relative strength index (RSI), stochastic oscillator, moving average convergence divergence (MACD), number theories, waves, gaps, and trends. The RSI, stochastic oscillator, MACD, gaps and trends are all extremely common technical analysis tools for those trying to forecast as well as play the stock market. While these tools can be used for the stock market, they can be used equally as well in forex forecasting.

Both the RSI and stochastic oscillator measure whether a currency is overbought or under-bought. The MACD on the other hand measures whether or not a trend will continue going up or down. When using charts to forex forecast, one may notice gaps between the bars. This occurs when no trading took place and an up-gap usually represents a strong market force, while a down-gap will indicate the opposite. The trends or Trendlines indicate an upward price movement or downward price movement based on the peaks and troughs of the trendline. None of these technical analysis tools require you to do the math. There are plenty of charts services on the web that are either free or require a fee that can do these calculations for you.

Other technical analysis tools that were mentioned include number theories. The two main number theories are the Fibonacci and the Gann. The Fibonacci numbers involve adding numbers to come to a ratio of 62% that is a popular retracement number. The Gann numbers are based on the theory of W.D. Gann who during the 1950s made an extraordinary amount of money performing forex forecasting. Gann used a variety of forecasting methods in order to measure price movement and time. These are presently known as price/time equivalents. To learn more about technical analysis tools and how to use them, one can turn to the web or their local bookstore. There are plenty of sites and books whose goal it is to teach people the art of forex forecasting. Keep in mind, that forex forecasting using technical analysis is not easy and it will require a great amount of studying. When it comes to performing technical analysis, some people prefer one analysis tool to another and this is not an indicator of which method is actually better. It is just a matter of personal preference.

The other method of forex forecasting, fundamental analysis, involves using factors outside of charts and numbers. The factors include political, environmental, and economic issues. For example, if a hurricane hit the United States coast and shut down a lot of major refineries the result on gas prices could influence the strength of the dollar. The fundamental analyst looks at the big picture of a country and the world and they must be extremely familiar with political, economic, and environmental news around the world. Fundamental analysis is not for someone who picks up a paper once a week. It requires devotion and a true interest in issues around the world.

When forex forecasting, some people choose to use either fundamental or technical analysis based on what works the best for them. However, it is probably best if you have strength in one method of analysis, but still reference the other. This is because there is not one single method that will provide you with the right answer. Also, while the technical chart may show a strong currency, if you are not aware of political and economic issues within a country then you could be blindsided, thusly losing a lot of money. Prior to forex forecasting, you should practice by paying attention to trading levels and picking your entry and exit points. When you feel you have reach a good point in successful forex forecasting practicing then you can move on to real forex forecasting.

Trading in any market is risky, but trading in the forex market is especially risky. There are no guarantees that you’ll make money, and even if you do make some money you’ll need to be prepared to lose some too. However, there are some forex trading strategies you can employ to maximize your potential to make money.

The first forex strategy is to never trade with money you cannot afford to lose. This means do not withdraw money from your savings or retirement accounts to fund your forex trading. Trading can be just as addictive as gambling in that you may think that the next trade will be the “one.” Unfortunately, if all you do is continue to lose, then you are really harming yourself and others who depend on you. Withdrawing money from a savings or retirement account is not the only place to get money when trading. You can apply for a margin account for forex trading.

Using a margin account as a forex trading strategy is not a very good one. In reality, margin trading can open doors for huge profits, but it can also be a door to huge losses. For example, if you borrow $500 to fund a trade and the trade makes $2000, then after you have paid back your $500, you walk away with $1500. However, on the flip side, if you borrow $500 to fund a trade and the currency goes down resulting in a loss of $2000, then you have really lost $2500, because not only did the trade lose $2000, you also have to find $500 to pay back the loan.

Your next forex trading strategy should involve determining whether the forex market is in an up trend or down trend. Furthermore, you should also try to determine the length of the trend and whether the trend is going to continue. Understanding the direction and atmosphere of the forex market will ultimately help you trade. After establishing the mood of the forex market, the next forex trading strategy you should employ involves establishing an entry and exit point. These points are prices at which you wish to enter and exit a trade.

There should also be two exit points. The first exit point should be the point at which you wish to exit the trade should the trade go up. The second exit point should be the point at which you wish to exit the trade should the trade go down. The second exit point is almost more critical than the first because you are losing money and there needs to be a point at which you know to leave a trade.

The hardest part about setting and following through with this point is that you want to make money, so you may hold out hope that the trade will turn around. One of the best forex trading strategies to utilize actually occurs just before entering a trade and that is listening to your instincts. Your instincts, as with many things in life, can be your best friend. If something is nagging at you to stay out of a trade, then do so. You may regret it if you don’t.

Pretending to trade is another forex trading strategy that can prove extremely useful. This allows you to practice your trades without losing any money. You can pretend to trade with paper by yourself, or you can utilize services on the Internet that allow you to do this for a small fee. Regardless of how you practice your trades, you will need to act as if you were actually trading, including picking entry and exit points. This will give you a good idea of how well you are doing at trading in the forex market as well as if you are improving.

Other forex trading strategies include using what other traders use to forecast their trades. Such tools include the 14-day RSI, Fibonacci retracement, MACD, and exponential moving averages (9, 20, 40 day). These are often the best indicators of when to enter into a trade. Keep in mind that while these are the most popular tools used in a forex trading strategy, they are not the only ones. There are many tools as well as many forex trading strategies. You just need to find the ones that work the best for you.