2Bull Forex Blog

When searching for Forex information on the internet you are likely to find articles relating to trendlines and trendline analysis.

Tom DeMark is a specialist in the field of technical market analysis and his best-selling book “The New Science of Technical Analysis” released in 1994 spells out some innovative techniques when it comes to the use of trendlines.

Much Forex information on the internet is of a general nature, and many articles are written about Forex by individuals who are not traders themselves. Tom DeMark on the other hand has had a long career with institutions trading stocks, futures, currencies and options.

His guidelines on the use of trendlines are very specific and they can be helpful to the newer trader who is searching for reliable Forex information on how to use standard indicators.

Here is a brief step-by-step description of how to draw DeMark trendlines:

Note: The term swing high and swing low (also called cycle high and cycle low) refers to the following:

In An Uptrend: A swing high is the wick of a candle that is higher than the wick of the candle to the left and right.

In A Downtrend: A swing low is the wick of a candle that is lower than the wick of the candle to the left and right.

Obviously the more candles to the left and right that are higher in a swing low or lower in a swing high makes the swing or cycle more significant.

An uptrend is where price is making higher highs and higher lows. A downtrend is where price is making lower highs and lower lows.

Drawing DeMark Trendlines

Drawing Trendlines In An Uptrend

1. Examine the bottoms of the candles on your chart and identify the most recent candle wick that is lower than the candle wicks to the immediate right and left of it.

2. Look left on the chart, and identify the previous low candle that has candle wicks higher to the immediate right and left of it which is lower than the current low candle.

3. Now draw a line from the current lowest candle to the previous lowest candle (drawing from right to left).

4. Now take the end of the newly drawn line which stops at the current low candle and extend it forward some distance (drawing from the present position to the right).

Drawing Trendlines In A Downtrend

1. Examine the tops of the candles on your chart and identify the most recent candle wick that is higher than the candle wicks to the immediate right and left of it.

2. Look left on the chart, and identify the previous high candle that has candle wicks lower to the immediate right and left of it which is higher than the current high candle.

3. Now draw a line from the current highest candle to the previous highest candle (drawing from right to left).

4. Now take the end of the newly drawn line which stops at the current high candle and extend it forward some distance (drawing from the present position to the right).

You have now drawn a Tom DeMark trendline.

This can now be a reference point for future price action. It will often be observed that price will come and check this level. If it breaks through, it can mean a change in direction, the significance of which will depend on the time frame being used.

Trendlines drawn on 5 minute or 15 minute charts have much lesser significance than trendlines drawn on higher time frames such as the 1 hour, 4 hour, or daily.

Caution Required

Much Forex information extols the virtues of trendlines as an indicator of possible future price action.

Mr. DeMark certainly has made this a science and his detailed approach to drawing trendlines is certainly more accurate than just drawing general trendlines along the bottoms and tops of trends according to the way the eye sees.

However, trendlines in themselves do not indicate where high probability trades can be taken.

It is important to use a variety of indicators before pulling the trigger. Examining previous levels of support and resistance is probably far more significant in determining where price is likely to hesitate that watching trendlines.

However, they can be useful. If you find a key support or resistance level also coincides with a Fibonacci retracement or extension level which is also at an intersection with a trendline, then you have built a reasonably solid case for a trade.

Use this Forex information on DeMark trendlines wisely, with caution, and it can be another useful addition to the Forex day trader’s toolkit!

Current monetary policy allows for free and open exchange of currencies at market rates for most US and European trading partners. In essence, by looking at the exchange rates, and by prognosticating on foreign and international news, foreign exchange traders are making gambles that currency valuations will change in the direction they’re anticipating in the future.

Where the gamble comes in is predicting the time frame. Billions of dollars are run through currency exchanges every day, trying to make money on changes in the market that come with 2 seconds of notice for a fraction of a percentage point - and if you’re the sort of person who can handle that kind of job, you can make a LOT of money at it with properly honed instincts.

A smaller scale foreign exchange currency trading strategy is to do positional buys. For example, right now the Euro is slightly lower than its historical average against the dollar. If oil prices rise, it’s likely that the dollar will drop against the Euro, slightly. If you invested a thousand dollars into Euros at $1.20 per Euro, you’d have 833.33 Euros. If the Euro rose to $1.25 per, your 833.33 Euros would sell for 1040 dollars and some change. Five and six cent shifts in the dollar to Euro exchange rate can happen weekly; the trick is knowing how to play them, and to watch long term trends in addition to the short term bustle. One of the significant advantages of buying foreign exchange investments is that you’re always guaranteed to have something left; it minimizes your risks of a catastrophic loss. It can also get you a rate of return of 5 or 6% in a month, as opposed to a year. Of course, it can also depreciate in value by 5 or 6% in a month as well…

Spotting trends is what separates the good forex traders from the mediocre ones, though there are some tricks of the trade.

The first, if performing a buy-and-hold strategy is to make sure that whatever currency you’re buying is held in a mutual fund in its native currency exchange - this smoothes out any downturns in the exchange rate, and can become an added bonus when you compound the interest with the difference in the exchange rate when you’re done. This does require a substantial initial investment - usually $5,000 to $10,000 or more.

The second is the stop-loss order; in essence, this says “Stop the trade if the price changes outside of the following band”. Given the automatic arbitrage systems, this is useful to minimize risks.

In terms of trading volatility, you need to decide if you’re going to be a day trader, or a position trader. If you’re looking at making this a career, day trading is the way to go; it’s very easy to make (and, alas, lose) fortunes doing rapid trading on the currency exchanges. You’ll need to be well versed in the rules for individual exchanges, when they open and close (currency exchanges are mostly based out of London, and Singapore’s exchange is important for the Asian market). You’ll also want to keep well versed not just on financial news, but world events. Changes in oil prices, trade policies, union rules, even fashion trends, can foretell trends on how currency exchange rates will move.

Position trading (as described above) is better for single investors working the markets for themselves.

An important consideration on all foreign currency exchanges is to remember to buy low and sell high. Don’t cling to investments for patriotic or sentimental reasons; that’s the surest way to lose your shirt. It’s also important to diversify - take your profits out of commodity and currency exchanges and put them aside in something more stable, to minimize your risks. Also, focus on multiple currencies, and look for currency exchange index funds, which tend to minimize the overall risks of this investment strategy.