2Bull Forex Blog

If you are a forex trader, you can either trade via fundamental analysis or technical analysis but which is best? Lets compare the advantages and disadvantages of each.

Fundamental Analysis

Currencies are affected by the fundamentals and these include:

The political situation, strength of the economy, government policy, the interest rate outlook to name just a few.

These are FACTS and the various participants look at them and decide which way prices should go.

The main advantage is:

The direction of the currency is normally in line with the long term fundamentals and this is reflected in currency trends lasting for months or years in line with economic and political cycles.

The main disadvantage is:

The people who look at the fundamentals are NOT making logical judgements they are influenced by the emotions of greed and fear.

We all have the same facts to look at but we all make subjective judgements on what the facts mean.

This means that price spikes are common and these don’t always reflect the fundamentals – Keep in mind it is humans as a collective group that decide price and they do NOT Conform to objective criteria.

To compound the problem we live in a world of instant communications, where the news is discounted in seconds and reflected in the price in a split second.

Now let’s look at technical analysis and why it is the best way for a trader should base his forex strategy upon it.

Forex Technical Analysis

Technical analysis contrary to belief, actually takes into account the fundamentals – it simply assumes that all fundamentals will show up in price action - but it does something more it takes into account the greed and fear of the participants, that motivate the individual participants.

A simple equation for this is:

Fundamentals + Investor Psychology = Price.

Forex technical analysis takes into account both inputs that make up price and they simply look at their forex charts and let them tell them where to execute their trading signals.

The advantages of forex technical analysis are:

It gives you the overall picture, is less time consuming, keeps your emotions out of trading and lets you trade the reality - without having to impose an opinion.

You trade the truth and that is the market price as you see it NOT what you think it should be.

The disadvantage is:

In the way that people use it – Most forex traders think they need to predict but that’s just guessing and hoping and you wont get far doing that!

Technical analysis will work, but only if you view it as a method to put the odds in your favour and act on confirmation of price changes.

For most traders a forex trading system based upon technical analysis is the best way to trade - you just need to be able to understand its advantages and limitations but that won’t stop you making a lot of money if you trade with the odds.

One final point:

They are completely separate forms of analysis and you should not mix the two – you are either a fundamental or technical trader. Our view is you should be the latter if you want to achieve currency trading success over the longer term.

We looked at the B Pound recently and gave you areas to sell if you did you made a huge profit with low risk and we have done separate report on the BP – here we want to look at the Yen and Euro and low risk /high reward trading scenario.

Lets look at these currencies and what the week ahead holds.

Japanese Yen

The trend against the dollar is down and has been for years - the recent rally is simply un-winding of carry trades.

This means the JY should resume its down trend and the recent volatility is presenting a low risk high reward opportunity. Take a look at a good free chart service such as futuresource.com and you will see for yourself.

Prices have spiked and are outside the top Bollinger band and resistance lies at 0.85.50 and 86.00. The key to looking at the short side is a change in price momentum.

Pull up the Relative Strength Index which has peaked at just above 70.00 and is losing momentum and also check the Stochastic which is set to cross with bearish divergence.

Look for a reversal day and momentum to turn bearish target on both indicators - target is the mid Bollinger band.

Euro

The euro is in a long term uptrend against the dollar and the recent correction (like the one we looked at in the British Pound) is simply the huge speculative long position being washed out and this looks to be almost done.

The key near term support is 1.36 (bottom of Bollinger band and July Lows)

Again you need to look at the RSI and stochastic and watch for a change in price momentum.

At present there is NO signal to buy RSI continues to fall and the stochastics are deeply oversold.

In Both Currencies

Do not try and predict WAIT for the confirmation on the charts backed up by price momentum.

Trade the reality of price - NOT your opinion (or the opinions of others) stay focused on the charts and stay disciplined.

There are of course conflicting news stories about what happens next - by focusing on the charts and trading the reality of a shift in price momentum, you will be trading the odds and that’s what any currency trader needs to do.

The long term trend is down in the Yen and up in the euro and while we could see a major trend change, this looks like a correction in both currencies and the longer term trends up in Euro and down in Yen will re assert themselves.