2Bull Forex Blog

If you are forecasting forex with fundamental analysis you are effectively looking at the supply and demand situation and trying to judge which way prices go. Forex prices respond to the long term fundamentals but you need to avoid the errors most traders make to succeed.

What is Forex Fundamental analysis?

Studies all the facts in relation to the supply and demand situation of the currency and these are numerous and include:

These are the facts and all traders see them but they draw different conclusions from what they see - this is the problem for any Forex trader and a problem for the trader following fundamentals.

A simple equation for market movement is:

Economic Fundamentals + Human perception = Market Movement

It is a fact that the markets do reflect the forex fundamentals but traders are emotional so they will push prices to far either up or down.

It’s a fact that markets tend to collapse when the fundamentals are most bullish and rally when they are most bearish. So you really need to follow investor psychology as well if you want to succeed.

News Is Discounted Instantly

Today we live in a world where the supply and demand fundamentals are available to all at the click of a mouse and they immediately show up in price action, so if you try and trade a news story, its been discounted and your playing catch up.

The news also relfects the greed and fear of the participants and can be misleading. Will Rodgers once said:

“I only believe what I read in the papers”

He was joking but the maount of people who take what the news says witout questioning its logic is huge.

For most traders trying to trade the fundamentals is impossible, as prices move too quickly and investor psychology constantly wrong foots them, as prices move opposite to the fundamentals, because investor psychology is emotionally driven.

Save Time and See the Whole Picture

The easiest way to trade is via technical analysis and forex charts.

You have the forex fundamentals covered as forex technical analysis simply assumes they show up in price action straightway and in today’s world of lightening fast communications, this is truer than ever before.

Furthermore, you get to see graphically how investors perceive them – this is very important and gives the overall picture.

A trader using forex charts does not try and work out where prices may go, he sees where they are and acts on the reality as he sees it.

This method is less time consuming, keeps your emotions out of trading and lets you trade on the reality of price.

A Surprising Forex Fact

Forex fundamental analysis is hard for most traders and although news is faster, better and more numerous than ever before a simple fact will illustrate why it won’t help you:

The ratio of winning traders is still 5% and it was at this level 50 years ago - despite all the advances in fundamental forecasting.

A Better Way to Win

It won’t make you a better trader or help you make money it will simply consume your time and see you lose. Trade via forex charts and you will see the whole picture and be able to spot profitable trading opportunities and act upon them and enjoy currency trading success.

Forex fundamental analysis is hard and technical analysis for most traders is the better option.

The most lucrative form of trading is locking into and following long term trends in forex that can last for months or years. Most traders have no idea how to profit from forex trend following so we will show you how to do it in 5 simple steps.

1. Be Selective

The first point to keep in mind is that the big trades don’t come around very often so you need to be patient and selective. You don’t get rewarded for trading frequently; you get rewarded for being right.

You can trade less than a dozen times a year and make triple digit gains, if you pick the right trades. So don’t be tempted to get in the market for the sake of it be patient.

2. Watch Breakouts

Forget buying low and selling high – most great trends start from new market highs and you have to be ready to buy these breaks.

If you wait for a pullback you will simply miss the best trends, because when a new trend breaks out - it moves quickly.

The best risk/ reward is offered on the these breaks. Most traders can’t buy breakouts, as they want to buy at a lower better price and wait for a pullback and they never get in and miss the trade.

3. Use a Simple System

To trend follow and catch breakouts you don’t need a complicated system.

All you need to understand are basic trend lines and the concept of support and resistance and that’s it.

A simple forex trading system is best, as it’s easy to understand and easy to apply – if you complicate your system, it will be less robust and will have too many elements which will break in trading.

All the best forex trading systems are simple and yours should be to.

4. Trade Valid Support and resistance only

Keep in mind, you only want to trade breaks that are considered important by the market.

This means that levels have been tested several times, in at least two time frames, preferably a few months.

When these levels are broken, chances are there are stops behind the level wating to be hit and new trend followers waiting to kick in which will accelerate the price trend.

5. Confirm – Confirm – Confirm!

Make sure that any breakout is confirmed by momentum oscillators – this will ensure you filter out false breakouts.

If you are not trading with price momentum, you’re not trading the odds and you won’t win – period.

Only take breakouts confirmed by a rise in price momentum.

We don’t have time to discuss the indicators to use here - but look up: RSI, ADX and the stochastic, as a good place to start.

6. Accept Short Term volatility

Breakout trading can see huge volatility after the initial breakout has occurred, don’t be tempted to move your stop to quickly WAIT.

You’re trying to catch the big trends so accept that you will see counter moves eat into your profits by several thousand a day.

If you want to catch the big trends and make $10, $20, $30,000 or more - accept the drawdowns in the short term and keep your eyes on the bigger prize if you dont you will be stopped out early and miss the big profit you were aiming at.

So there you have it.

A simple, logical system, that can and will pile up huge profits in under an hour a day.

You won’t have to spend much time on this system and you won’t trade very often – but you will make a lot of money and that at the end of the day, is what forex trading is all about.