2Bull Forex Blog

The Forex is essentially risk-bearing. By the evaluation of the grade of a possible risk accounted should be the following kinds of it: exchange rate risk, interest rate risk, and credit risk, country risk.

Exchange rate risk.

Exchange rate risk is the effect of the continuous shift in the worldwide market supply and demand balance on an outstanding foreign exchange position. For the period it is outstanding, the position will be subject to all the price changes. The most popular measures to cut losses short and ride profitable positions that losses should be kept within manageable limits are the position limit and the loss limit. By the position limitation a maximum amount of a certain currency a trader is allowed to carry at any single time during the regular trading hours is to be established. The loss limit is a measure designed to avoid unsustainable losses made by traders by means of stop-loss levels setting.

Interest rate risk.

Interest rate risk refers to the profit and loss generated by fluctuations in the forward spreads, along with forward amount mismatches and maturity gaps among transactions in the foreign exchange book. This risk is pertinent to currency swaps, forward outright, futures, and options (See below). To minimize interest rate risk, one sets limits on the total size of mismatches. A common approach is to separate the mismatches, based on their maturity dates, into up to six months and past six months. All the transactions are entered in computerized systems in order to calculate the positions for all the dates of the delivery, gains and losses. Continuous analysis of the interest rate environment is necessary to forecast any changes that may impact on the outstanding gaps.

Credit risk.

Credit risk refers to the possibility that an outstanding currency position may not be repaid as agreed, due to a voluntary or involuntary action by a counter party. In these cases, trading occurs on regulated exchanges, such as the clearinghouse of Chicago. The following forms of credit risk are known:

1. Replacement risk occurs when counterparties of the failed bank find their books are subjected to the danger not to get refunds from the bank, where appropriate accounts became unbalanced.

2. Settlement risk occurs because of the time zones on different continents. Consequently, currencies may be traded at the different price at different times during the trading day. Australian and New Zealand dollars are credited first, then Japanese yen, followed by the European currencies and ending with the U.S. dollar. Therefore, payment may be made to a party that will declare insolvency (or be declared insolvent) immediately after, but prior to executing its own payments.

Therefore in assessing the credit risk, end users must consider not only the market value of their currency portfolios, but also the potential exposure of these portfolios. The potential exposure may be determined through probability analysis over the time to maturity of the outstanding position. The computerized systems currently available are very useful in implementing credit risk policies. Credit lines are easily monitored. In addition, the matching systems introduced in foreign exchange since April 1993 are used by traders for credit policy implementation as well. Traders input the total line of credit for a specific counterparty. During the trading session, the line of credit is automatically adjusted. If the line is fully used, the system will prevent the trader from further dealing with that counterparty. After maturity, the credit line reverts to its original level.

Dictatorship risk.

Dictatorship (sovereign) risk refers to the government’s interference in the Forex activity. Although theoretically present in all foreign exchange instruments, currency futures are, for all practical purposes, excepted from country risk, because the major currency futures markets are located in the USA. Hence, traders have to realize that kind of the risk and be in state to account possible administrative restrictions.

Kinds of prices and time units

Charts for the technical analysis are being constructed in coordinates “price (the vertical axis) – time (the horizontal axis)”. The following kinds of currency prices represented on charts are being distinguished on Forex:

• open – a price at the beginning of a trade period (year, month, day, week, hour, minute or a certain amount of one from these units);
• close - a price at the end of a trade period;
• high – the highest from prices observed during a trade period;
• low – the lowest from prices observed during a trade period.

Providing the technical analysis one uses charts for different time units – from 1 year or more till 1 minute. The bigger is a time unit applied for the chart plotting the bigger is a time span to analyze price movements and to determine the major trend by means of the chart. For the short trading charts for less time units are more suitable.

Line chart

The line chart is plotted connecting single prices for a selected time period. The most popular line chart is the daily chart. Although any point in the day can be plotted, most traders focus on the closing price, which they perceive as the most important. But an immediate problem with the daily line chart is the fact that it is impossible to see the price activity for the balance of the period as well as gaps – breakups in prices at joints of trade periods. Nevertheless, line charts are easier to visualize. Also, technical analysis goes well beyond chart formation; in order to execute certain models and techniques, line charts are better suited than any of the other charts.

Bar chart

The bar chart consists from separate histograms. To plot a histogram in coordinates price – time the points responding to high, low, open and close prices for a time period analyzed should be marked on the one vertical bar. The opening price usually is marked with a little horizontal line to the left of the bar; and the closing price is marked with a little horizontal line to the right of the bar. Bar charts have the obvious advantage of displaying the currency range for the period selected. An advantage of this chart is that, unlike line charts, the bar chart is able to plot price gaps. Hence, it is impossible to see on a bar chart absolutely all price movements during the period.

Candlestick chart

The candlestick chart is closely related to the bar chart. It also consists of four major prices: high, low, open, and close. In addition to the common readings, the candlestick chart has a set of particular interpretations. The latter is possible thanks to the convenient visual observation of that chart.

The opening and closing prices form the body (jittai) of the candlestick. To indicate that the opening was lower than the closing, the body of the bar is left blank. Current standard electronic displays allow you to keep it blank or select a color of your choice. If the currency closes below its opening, the body is filled. In its original form, the body was colored black, but the electronic displays allow you to keep it filled or to select a color of your choice. The intraday (or weekly) direction on a candlestick chart can be traced by means of two “shadows”: the upper shadow (uwakage) and the lower shadow (shitakage). Just as with a bar chart, the candlestick chart is unable to trace every price movement during a period’s activity.

The trendline

A trendline is a main initial element for the price chart analysis. While the market moves in any direction not along a straight line but along a zigzag, the mutual placement of upper and bottom points of those zigzags permits to plot a line connecting the significant highs (peaks) or the significant lows (troughs) of an appropriate zigzag using technical tools of the computer program.

To draw a trendline only two points are necessary and the third one is the contact point confirmation. On a bullish trend chart it should be drawn using troughs, on a bearish – using peaks. The trendline and a line which is about parallel to it and drawn on the opposite side (through peaks on a bullish trend and through troughs on a bearish) form the trade channel. Both lines are then channel’s borders.

Lines of support and resistance

The upper and the bottom borders of trade channels are called accordingly support and resistance lines. The peaks represent the price levels at which the selling pressure exceeds the buying pressure. They are known as resistance levels. The troughs, on the other hand, represent the levels at which the selling pressure succumbs to the buying pressure. They are called support levels. In an uptrend, the consecutive support and resistance levels must exceed each other respectively. The reverse is true in a downtrend. Although minor exceptions are acceptable, these failures should be considered as warning signals for trend changing.

The significance of trends is a function of time and volume. The longer the prices bounce off the support and resistance levels, the more significant the trend becomes. Trading volume is also very important, especially at the critical support and resistance levels. When the currency bounces off these levels under heavy volume, the significance of the trend increases.

The importance of support and resistance levels goes beyond their original functions. If these levels are convincingly penetrated, they tend to turn into just the opposite. A firm support level, once it is penetrated on heavy volume, will likely turn into a strong resistance level. Conversely, a strong resistance turns into a firm support after being penetrated.

In general, to evaluate the reliability (that is the possibility of a break) of the trade channel borders taking a decision to close or to save an existing position one should govern himself with following rules:

1. A channel is the more reliable the longer it exists. Hence, the “solidity” of very old channels (e.g. existing more than 1 year) decreased sharply.
2. A channel is the more reliable the more is his width (“It takes time to break channel”).
3. The resistance may be broken if it is bounced on the background of a growing volume (“It takes volume to break resistance”).
4. A steep channel is less reliable in compare to a gentle one.
5. The support may be broken independent on the volume (“under own weight”).