2Bull Forex Blog

If you want to be successful at forex trading then you need to know how and why prices move - many traders think this is obvious but its not and that’s why 95% of traders lose. Here we will look at the factors that move currency markets and how you can profit.

First let’s start with a simple equation:

Supply and Demand Fundamentals + Investor Perception = Price

While the above equation is simple enough, it’s deceptive and most traders fail to understand its significance, when they learn forex trading.

Fundamentals

These are the supply and demand facts and they help move price but the person studying these facts has a problem - while the facts are there for all to see, we all see them differently and draw our own conclusions about what they mean.

Our actions combined with millions of other traders, creates the price.

The facts are there for all traders to see but we all draw different conclusions that’s why the facts alone are not enough to help you trade.

It’s a fact that markets collapse when they are most bullish and rally when they are at their most bearish - this is investor psychology at work.

Investor Perception

Of the facts creates the price and we are not creatures of logic, we are creatures of emotion and these are reflected in the price.

It’s a fact that greed and fear dominate investors and these emotions cause price spikes away from fair value. These price spikes never last long and are easy to see on any forex chart and they never last long and return to fair value.

So what do you need to understand in terms of the above, in terms of your forex education? Here are the salient points:

- Never predict price movement as humans behavior cannot be predicted
- Trading fundamentals by themselves is hard as its only half the equation
- Trading is a game of odds and you need to get the odds in your favor to win

Now you know the above how do you get a forex trading strategy for currency trading success?

The simplest way is to base your forex trading strategy on forex technical analysis.

Not only does it take into account the fundamentals it also takes into account how investors perceive them.

Technical analysis simply assumes that all fundamentals will be quickly be reflected in price action and in today’s world of instant communications and online trading, this is truer than ever before.

Technical analysis more importantly, takes into account how investors perceive the fundamentals. While prices do not move to a scientific theory, human nature is constant and this is reflected in repetitive price patterns on any forex chart.

While charting is not a science, certain formations that present themselves do offer trades where you can put the odds in your favor, with a robust currency trading system.

You won’t win every trade - but if you trade the odds, you will win more than you lose and pile up huge long term profits.

Most novice traders when they try and learn currency exchange don’t understand the way prices really move and think they can predict, trade news stories and use scientific theories and they lose. To win at forex trading the best way to trade is to trade the reality of forex prices changes - without predicting, focus on the odds and assume any trade can go wrong.

The equation for forex price movement is essentially simple but deceptive.

Now you know how and why forex prices really move, you can build a forex trading system to help you enjoy currency trading success.

There are many different forex trading strategies as there are many different ways of achieving forex trading success but if you are devising one for yourself there are some key elements the best forex trading strategies incorporate and that the subject of this article.

1. They are Simple

There is a big myth that science can help you trade and the buzz words are neural networks and artificial intelligence systems and other complicated trading systems. The problem is complex forex trading systems with to many inputs mean there are more elements to break and these systems fail in real time.

The base of your forex trading strategy should be a simple trading system that will be robust in the face of ever changing brutal market conditions.

2. Objectivity

The best forex trading strategies tend to be based around objective criteria and rules that are clear and do not have too much subjectivity. For example, a moving average cross over is an objective forex trading signal - Elliot wave and cycles are not and involve subjectivity.

By keeping your strategy objective rather than subjective, you will keep your emotions out and stay disciplined.

3. Trade Valid Data

If your forex trading strategy involves technical analysis and forex charting then you need to use valid data. Forex day trading systems don’t work, as volatility in short time frames is random and prices can and do go anywhere. You need to get the odds on your side and that means trading longer term - swing trading or long term trend following.

4. Breakouts

Most of the top trading systems use breakout methodology, as it’s a fact most major moves start from new market highs not market lows.

Traders who want to get in at a lower price miss these moves - breakout traders know that the odds favour a continuation of the move when a significant level of support and resistance has been penetrated.

5. Money Management

The best forex strategies know there is risk involved in any trade and manage not just the risk per trade but have their eye on the overall risk to the account and the risk of ruin. You need to take care of the losses first and if you have a sound robust currency trading system the profits will look after themselves.

6. Acting on Confirmation

Many forex trading strategies liked to try and base themselves on so called scientific theories of market movement but the fact is trading is a game of odds NOT certainties and this is obvious. If markets did move to a scientific theory we would all know the price in advance and there would be no market.

While this is obvious many traders like to trade far out theories like: Gann Fibonacci and Elliot wave. None of them are scientific by nature and all involve subjectivity from the user - this is a contradiction in terms of a scientific theory.

Predicting means you are hoping or guessing and that won’t get you far in life and certainly not FX trading.

7. Realism

The best forex trading strategies have realistic aims in terms of profits and while many can make triple digit profits in short periods of time over the longer term the best do 30 - 50% compounded and if you had one that did similar you would quickly compound a lot of money and be very wealthy.

If you understand the above you will see that forex trading strategies that are successful tend to be simple, robust, objective and have strong money management linked to realistic goals. If you do the same in your forex trading strategy you can make a lot of money in global forex markets.

Anyone can learn currency exchange - but it’s a fact that 95% of traders lose and this is simply down to the fact that traders believe currency trading myths or, simply get the wrong forex education. Let’s look at learning currency exchange the right way.

1. Risk Goes With Reward

Risk goes with reward we all know that and the rewards in forex trading are potentially life changing, so don’t believe its easy, its not - but currency trading success is achievable and anyone can be a successful trader.

Just keep in mind you must approach currency trading with a desire to succeed and a willingness to work smart and take responsibility.

2. Your on Your Own

If you want to learn from someone else and use their knowledge as a basis for your forex trading strategy that’s fine - but do not follow someone blindly, or you will not have confidence in what you are doing.

Understanding what you are doing and having confidence in it, is the key to applying your forex trading strategy with discipline and this is the key to success.

If you do not apply your forex method with discipline, you don’t have a system at all.

So learn from others but understand what you’re doing.

3. Do not Fall for these currency trading myths

The rise of online forex trading has seen the rise of vendors who are out to make a quick buck, most of them are not traders and they are responsible for spreading several myths of which some of the most popular are outlined below:

- Day trading and scalping is a great way to win at forex
- You can predict forex prices in advance
- Buy low sell high is a way to make money
- A forex trading system sold with simulated track record will work
- Forex markets move to a scientific formula

The above are all myths and if you believe any of them you will lose

4. Work Smart Not Hard

You don’t need to work hard; you need to work smart when learning currency exchange. You should only learn the information you need to succeed.

One of the best ways to start is to teach yourself forex technical analysis and how to use forex charts. This should only take you a week or so, you can then build your own robust trading system about 2 weeks - that’s it.

Once you have your system, its 30 minutes or less a day to execute your trading signals.

Forget all the people who tell you to constantly study and learn - that may help you get a university degree but won’t help you in the forex markets. You don’t get paid for effort - you get paid for being right and that’s it.

5. You Must Acquire This!

All successful forex traders have it and it’s a trading edge.

A trading edge is the edge you have over other forex trader’s i.e the 95% who lose at forex trading. It doesn’t matter what it is - but you must understand it and have confidence in it to give you long term success.

If you don’t know what your trading edge is - you need to get back to learning currency trading basics until you do.

6. Mindset

The real key when learning currency exchange is not so much getting a method but learning to apply it with discipline. Learning a currency trading system is easy; applying it with discipline is the hard part.

When you are in the middle of a series of losses, it takes great mental discipline to stay disciplined and not throw in the towel or vary your trading system.

You will understand this feeling better when you come to trade!

To be a successful currency trader you have a combination of learning the right knowledge, which gives you the confidence to apply it with discipline. If you want to learn currency exchange the right way, the above essay will point you in the right direction for long term FX trading success.

If you are new to forex trading the best way to get started is swing trading - its simple to learn requires very little discipline and can soon be making you huge profits. Let’s look at currency swing trading in more detail.

The Objective

Is to capture moves which will typically last between a couple of days and around a week and will trade short term moves within support and resistance levels - normally from overbought or oversold levels.

Why It Does Not Require Much Discipline

Most traders fail because of lack of discipline. They can’t run big profits and trend follow because it takes tremendous patience to wait for the right opportunities and great willpower to hold long term trends if open equity dips.

In forex swing trading, you get a lot of trades and you know if you are right or wrong quickly, it therefore is ideal for novice traders.

Building a Swing Trading System in 2 Simple Steps

If you are learning currency trading and a trading system regardless of time period you need to incorporate two facets into it

1. Support and resistance

You need to look and find areas of support and resistance where prices are likely to hold or break and then move to market timing to confirm the move on your forex chart.

2. Confirmation

If you simply try and swing trade into a level of support and resistance without some indication it will hold you are effectively hoping or guessing and you will lose.

Traders who predict on forex charts lose - it’s as simple as that.

You need to act on confirmation and here you need to incorporate momentum oscillators into your forex technical analysis - if you don’t know what they are, its time to learn. Good ones to start with are the stochastic, RSI, ADX and MACD. These are plotted on most good forex chart services and are visual ( you don’t need to know the calculation) and you will soon be spotting the correct set ups.

They will allow you to check changes in price momentum and indicate whether support or resistance will hold or break. We have discussed these fully in our other articles so look them up.

Once you have confirmation you can execute your trading signal

A few other points you need to keep in mind when currency swing trading are:

Always take your profit early - before the next support or resistance level is hit as prices can soon turn around and wipe out your open profit.

Also you can trade breakouts - this is where levels of support or resistance break and prices go to new lows or highs. It’s a fact that breakout trades offer some of the best risk to reward trades you are going to get and if you catch them you can enjoy currency trading success.

With stops place it straightaway as you enter the market and don’t exit on a stop exit on a profit taking signal.

You can learn to swing trade and put together a robust simple swing trading system in a few weeks and soon be making some great FX profits.

Currency swing trading as we have said is - simple and easy to learn and can be very profitable, so try it and you will soon be getting some great trades and great profits.