2Bull Forex Blog

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Today the computer you have on your desk is much more powerful than Mission Control Houston that helped man land on the moon. Powerful computers have changed our lives for the better and here we will look at their affect in forex trading and the application of forex trading systems by traders for profit.

So how useful are computers in forex trading?

The role of computers is very often misunderstood by forex traders.

Computers have enhanced our lives in many areas and help us solve complicated problems there is the belief forex trading systems can be created to trade forex markets automatically.

There are a number of forex trading systems for sale that promise to do just that - and most of them fail.

There are two reasons for this failure:

1. The System is to Complicated

Its tempting to make a system complicated and many traders do they figure the more elements it contains the better its chances of success however the complete reverse is true.

The more rules and parameters you cram into a trading system the more elements there are to break in the brutal ever changing markets - it’s a fact simple systems work best as they are more robust and this has always been so.

2. Curve fitting

Many systems that fail in real time trading actually work in hindsight when their tested on data and the reason for this is curve fitting. Curve fitting is simply bending the rules of the trading system to fit the data. When the first rules don’t work the trader simply bends them until they do. This is a bit like shooting at door with a shotgun and then after the event, drawing a chalk circle around each one to make it a bulls-eye!

Keep in mind that any segment of data is going to be different as the markets are not scientific in terms of their movement so the appliance of science is of limited use.

The above mistakes are often made in tandem and complexity or trying to be clever testing data and bending a system won’t help you make money.

Here is another startling fact:

50 years ago 95% of traders lost and today the ratio remains the same - this is despite all the advances in computers forecasting and market data retrieval. It’s pretty clear that the application of computers has made no real difference to the success of traders.

Many traders think the application of science and computers can help in all areas of life and in many they can but in forex markets this is not so.

Computers make your life easier but they cannot be relied upon to give you success.

Just as in the past a simple system will beat a complicated one and that is never going to change as forex is a game of odds not certainties.

Yes computers are helpful but the real key to trading is finding a simple forex trading system, understanding it and applying it with discipline.

One of the most important points you need to learn in terms of basic forex education is - that if you want to win at forex trading, do not make the mistake of trying to predict prices in advance, if you do you will lose. Here we will explain why and give a better way to trade.

We don’t know the future and if you try predicting it or forex prices you are simply hoping or guessing and that will not get you anywhere in life and certainly not in forex trading.

Most traders make this mistake when trading:

They spot prices moving to a support or resistance level and then simply jump in the market and execute their trading signal - this is totally wrong and is guaranteed to lose you money over time.

Why?

Well if the price is moving to support and the trend is down why anticipate?

What you should do is waiting for prices to come to support and then start moving away - this is the correct time to execute your trading signal and to do this properly you need to learn about momentum oscillators which will help you determine when price momentum is moving in your favour.

We have written numerous articles on the use of these, so look them up and if you want to look at some good ones check out the Relative Strength Index and the stochastic, there excellent simple indicators you can learn to use in 30 minutes which is time well spent!

REMEMBER THIS:

Trading is a game of odds and to get the odds on your side, you should always trade with momentum on your side.

Do not believe the far out investment crowd who tell you there is a scientific formula for market movement - there isn’t

If there was we would all know the price in advance and there would be no market!

There are many vendors selling forex trading systems based upon the works of - Fibonacci, Elliot and Gann and they didn’t make any money for them and won’t make money for you.

If you want to trade forex successfully then as part of your forex education you must learn how to confirm your trading signals with momentum indicators. If you do, you will have a head start on your way to forex trading success.

Forex day trading is the most popular method for new traders to try and it is a guaranteed way to lose money quickly. Why? Because the logic that forex day trading is based upon simply doesn’t add up - here’s why you are destined to lose if you day trade.

Firs of all lets look at all those forex day trading systems which make big claims on the net with their supposed track records.

If you see a day trading track record look for the disclaimer below:

“CFTC RULE 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown”.

The above is the most common as its standard CFTC one. As you can see the track record means nothing as it’s never been traded! It’s been done knowing past data and is simply a hypothetical simulation.

Unfortunately, forex trading is not that easy we have to trade not knowing the prices in advance.

You only ever get a simulation because these vendors don’t have the confidence to trade their own system, as they know they dont work!

They want to make money from sales, while a mug trader loses. The vendor has a guaranteed profit and the trader a guaranteed loss.

So why doesn’t day trading work?

Well its pretty obvious if you think about it - you have millions of traders, trading trillions of dollars and to say you can gauge what this vast diverse trading base will do, in a few hours is ridiculous.

All daily volatility is random and prices can end up going anywhere and they do.

Support and resistance levels in daily time frame are useless and you would have as much success flipping a coin.

Day trading is simply a great way to lose money long term you don’t have the odds in your favour and you wont be lucky for ever - leave forex day trading to the naïve or greedy traders and concentrate on trading longer term, where you can trade the odds and win.