2Bull Forex Blog

Today, traders all around the world are using complex computer programs and mathematical equations to work out the scientific theory of market movement. What are the results and how can they benefit your FX trading strategy?

Let’s start with a fact:

Today 95% of traders lose their money and it’s the same ratio as 50 or 100 years ago and this is despite all the so called advances in computers, forecasting and number crunching applied and this leads to an obvious conclusion.

Forex markets don’t move the certainties i.e. mathematics, they only move based upon odds and you can try as hard as you like to apply science and maths - but if prices move to the odds this is futile. It’s obvious:

If markets moved to a mathematical theory, we would all know the price in advance and there would be no market! Common sense - but traders love complexity, it makes them feel safe and they think it cuts risk. They may love it but it won’t help them.

Today there is a huge industry in robots and automation is the buzz word and you see extra ordinary profits in hindsight and simulations - but they never work in real time, because no two pieces of data are ever the same and you really are chasing your tail if you try it.

Just as in yester year, simple forex trading systems work best, as they are more robust with fewer elements to break. A simple odds based system should be the basis of your FX Trading strategy. Don’t be deceived a simple odds based system can make a lot of money.

The problem today is we are used to science and maths solving problems in life and making our life easier, more comfortable and it does - but that doesn’t mean it works in all areas of life and the forex market is one, where it doesn’t. You need to keep it simple, have confidence in what your doing and if you do, you can enjoy currency trading success.

So stop trying to beat the market and see it for what it is, a high stakes, high odds game and get the right forex education. If you keep it simple and trade the odds, you can make a lot of money with your FX trading strategy and that’s a fact.

There are two major types of Forex brokers, and which one is best for you can depend on your specific trading strategies. There are Market Makers (MM) and Electronic Communications Network (ECN) in the Forex market, and knowing the difference between the two is extremely important if you want to be a successful Forex trader.

Market Makers (MM) are brokerage firms that set both the asking price and the bid price. This means that an MM sets up every part of your trade. No matter if you are buying or selling, the MM is your trading partner and taking the other side of that trade, therefore ensuring that your trade will go through.

Electronic Communications Networks (ECNs) take the bid and ask prices from several different market participants (such as individual traders, banks, MMs) and then the bid and ask prices are displayed as bid/ask quotes.

When you place an order to buy, it’s matched with a sell order set at the same price. If there is no match, then your order simply will not take place because you will have no partner to trade under those terms. Unlike the MMs, the broker in an ECN does not take the other side of the trade, and is under no obligation to do so. The partner ends up being whatever trader wants to go the other way with the same currency pair.

Three positives of an MM:

1. Most market makers have set spreads.
2. Market makers normally have user-friendly, downloadable trading platforms that include free charting software
3. MMs, since they are your trading partner, tend to guarantee that your orders will almost always be filled.

Three positives of using an ECN:

1. The bid/ask prices are normally better because there are multiple sources used to derive them.
2. You can make trades within the spread itself and take the role of an MM.
3. Prices are more volatile, which is better for scalping.

Many traders who use diverse styles of trading will have accounts with both types of brokers. In fact, I have accounts with both. Knowing the differences between these broker types will help you know how to have the best set up for each type of trading strategy your system calls for you to use. For some the MM is a better choice, while for others an ECN clearly reigns supreme.

Once you intimately know the pros and cons of both types of Forex brokers you’ll be one step closer to being ready to learn to make a killing in the Forex market.

This post is all about the basics of forex charts and using technical analysis to win. It’s the simplest most time efficient way to achieve currency trading success and anyone can do it with the right forex education…

Forex charts allow you to see all the inputs that go to make up the price and while you get people who say you cant trade without taking into account the fundamentals, that to a degree is true - but forex technical analysis does take the fundamentals into account and the following equation will make this clearer:

Fundamentals (supply and demand) + Investor View Of = Price

The fundamentals are not important by themselves - it’s how all the traders view them that makes the price. We all have the same facts to look at but we all draw different conclusions from what we see and this vast mass of opinion makes the market price.

Technical analysis simply assumes that all fundamentals will quickly show up in price action and it also does something more - it tells you how the investors perceive them.

Markets move on investor sentiment and that’s why studying charts is so effective.

Human nature is constant and this is reflected in the charts.

The same formations reflect human psychology, again and again and if you can spot these high odds formations or patterns, you can execute you’re trading signals, with the odds on your side and enjoy currency trading success.

A big myth about forex charting is you need to predict what happens next.

You don’t.

If you do you are simply hoping or guessing and that won’t get you far in life, let alone forex trading. You should simply trade the truth, as you see it, on the chart and by doing so, you will have the odds on your side.

When trading with charts you only need a simple system, as it’s proven that simple systems work best, as they are more robust in the face of brutal ever changing market conditions.

You also need to trade valid data.

This is data where you can get the odds on your side and this means no day trading and no forex scalping!

The data is not reliable and prices can and do go anywhere in a day. In the longer term you can measure investor sentiment but not in the short term.

If you have a simple trading system, trade the reality of price and show discipline you can win.

Forex charts allow you to step back from the crowd and see value and sentiment, right there on the chart which you can trade for profit.

Charting is an art not a science but if you practice your art, you will soon have a powerful way of trading which will allow you to seek big forex profits in just 30 minutes a day.

What is a realistic gain per annum for a new trader in forex trading? Most new traders either give you an blank expression, or quote a wild figure. Here I will give my views based upon the experience of having taught and been a broker to over 5,000 traders…

The best traders I have seen have managed 100% + per annum with the very best at 167% compounded per annum over 3 years but this woman was special! Other traders who did will were in the 30 - 50% bracket. Let me say though this was a very small minority.

What amuses me today in the world of online forex trading, how the myth has grown of how easy it is and the track records of some forex robots not only beats the best I have seen but are better than the top hedge fund managers. Of course all the track records quoted are not real profits just paper profits in hindsight and are no reflection of reality where the robots soon destroy equity.

The myth is there and everyone wants to be a professional forex trader and there are plenty of vendors offering untold riches with no effort - but the ratio of losers today, is the same as it was when I started trading - 95% lose and get wiped.

So don’t believe all the great advice you get on making money the easy way, making money is never easy and you wouldn’t expect it to be with the rewards on offer in forex trading.

If you made 50% per annum, you can consider yourself doing very well and if you do 100% + year in year out, your up there with the best.

Another myth of forex trading is you are going to get rich on a few hundred dollars.

When I started trading we didn’t take retail accounts under $5,000 and they were considered small.

Today, the amounts you can invest are tiny and the leverage is higher than ever before - 200:1 is standard, with many brokers offering 400:1 - but it won’t help you win, as volatility is so high and small swings wipe you out. 10 or 20:1 is a more sensible leverage to use.

Most accounts have no chance of winning because they leverage up and of course sooner rather than later, the market gives them a slap and bang goes their account.

If you made 50 - 100% per annum that will compound up into a massive figure if you do it consistently and you can do it if you are prepared to get the right forex trading education, have the right mindset and be realistic.

If you do the above currency trading success can be yours.

The Zurich Axioms by Max Gunther isn’t a book just about forex trading it’s a book that puts you in the mood to make money and lots of it! Here I have selected some of my favorite wisdom from the book which if you follow, can turn average gains into extraordinary gains…

Max Gunther starts with statement about Switzerland that sets the tone of the book.

“Consider the puzzle of Switzerland. This ancestral home of mine is a rocky little place about half the size of Maine. It has not one inch of seacoast. It is one of the most mineral-poor lands on earth. It possesses not a drop of oil to call its own, barely a bucket of coal. As for farming, its climate and topography are inhospitable to just about everything”.

Yet the Swiss are among the most affluent people in the world. How do the Swiss do it?

Quite simply over the years Switzerland has produced some of the world’s greatest speculators and some of them wrote the Axioms. Some of the views are against the majority opinion as the book states but you need to:

“Disregard the majority opinion. It is probably wrong”.

Of course it is very few traders get rich and many of the so called wisdoms you accept wont help you get rich and let’s start with the first one.

“Worry is not a sickness but a sign of health. If you are not worried, you are not risking enough”

There is nothing wrong with being a bit worried, as it means you are playing for:

“Meaningful stakes - if an amount is so small that its loss won’t make any significant difference, then it isn’t likely to bring any significant gains either”

How true - how often do you hear you should only risk 2% on a trade? - well that won’t make you much.

You can risk 10 - 20% or more, if you have the odds in your favor.

Just be patient and wait for the right opportunities. This isn’t being rash this is waiting and taking calculated risks at the right time and hitting them hard.

I know traders who trade less than one a month but make triple digit gains - How?

There patient, wait for the high odds trades and hit them hard.

“Resist the allure of diversification”

Another well known wisdom but wont help you make a lot of money. You have a good trade so why dilute it with low odds trades that can cut your profits? If you are trading a small FX account focus on one area and hit it as hard as you can when the opportunity arises

“Human behavior cannot be predicted. Distrust anyone who claims to know the future, however dimly”.

True - but how many traders don’t have the guts to do their own trading and trust guru’s, mentors and scientific theories of market behavior and worthless forex robots and get beat - the vast majority.

What the Zurich Axioms teaches you and why its such a great book is:

It persuades you not to be frightened of risk - but to love it.

You take risks at the right time to make a lot of money and that’s a fact.

It’s a fact in forex trading that most traders hate risk and try and restrict it so much they have no chance of winning and all they do is take small loss after loss until their wiped out.

It also encourages you to take charge of your own destiny and be alert for opportunities and investment traps.

Many will scoff at the above and say its not accepted wisdom maybe not but the people who devised the Axioms got very rich using them and you can to - simply get hold of a copy of this book and be prepared to amused, as well as inspired, to start taking calculated risks, at the right time and hitting them hard.

Forex involves risk and it’s the way you manage risk, which will determine the destiny of your account.

Of course, you can run with the losing pack or you can take a different, more exciting and more rewarding route to currency trading success.