2Bull Forex Blog

Over the past six months it seems like almost every major finance magazine has published an article related to the weakness of the dollar. If you are a currency trader like I am then this topic is particularly relevant to you because you need to know what the long-term trends of each currency are so that you can make profitable trades.

What you probably have not been reading about in the news are some of the events that have been happening behind the scenes or that will be happening in the near future, and why the American economy will ultimately regain its strength.

The single most significant factor affecting the American dollar is the trade balance, and the biggest portion of this problem is related to our war in the Middle East that should never have been authorized, yet is still costing us billions of dollars every single day. I will not spend a lot of time talking about the horrendous actions of the Bush administration (namely that they defrauded their way into office in order to wage a cultural genocide for the sake of gaining control over oil), but there are truly good things that have been happening behind the scenes and that will be happening in the near future.

You will not hear about many of these things in the mass media news outlets in America such as CNN and ABC, and there is an exceedingly simple reason why these manipulated news networks try to convince the American people that there is a threat of danger when really none exists at all: War is profitable. There are powerful groups in our world today whose agendas are motivated by greed and control, and these people engage in heartless wartime profiteering so that they may satisfy their lust for power. But it is not all bad: I will discuss some of the wondrous events that are causing these groups to rapidly lose their power, and what all of this information means for the currency markets.

The Bush Administration has dropped to single-digit approval ratings, and millions of Americans have gone to websites such as Impeach Bush and spoken out about their opinions of why this man is no longer our leader. Dennis Kucinich, a representative from my home state of Ohio that I have had the pleasure of meeting, is leading the way for the eventual impeachment and forcible removal from office of Bush and his war-mongering cronies.

The Bush Administration has inadvertently caused a global recession with their desire to wage a heartless war, and the signs are strong that the global community has finally come together and told these warmongers “Enough!” They are rapidly losing power as people are becoming more conscious and aware of the fact that they have been lied to by the controlled mass media outlets.

If you are looking for really good forex trading opportunities, I would be willing to bet that when the news releases come out stating things such as Bush’s impeachment or other things that peace-loving people the world over are working to create, there will be a large jump in the value of the dollar in the window of a day or two.

The really good news for the dollar and for the American people is coming from Japan. The Japanese are the largest holders of foreign dollar reserves (around $5 trillion dollars), and they have openly declared that they will no longer fund the American war effort.

The reason why I remain optimistic about the future of the American economy is because of the two main presidential candidates that have come forward to lead our country. In my mind (and in accordance with recent political data), the two main candidates in the 2008 presidential election will be Barack Obama and Ron Paul. Both of these men are benevolent leaders and are sufficiently equipped to rectify the errors of the Bush Administration, and Ron Paul has openly stated that he will abolish the Federal Reserve and the IRS to create a more prosperous America.

In the last paragraph, notice that I said the “American economy” and not the dollar. This is an important point, because many benevolent and powerful leaders are discussing new potential monetary systems for the United States that can lead to greater prosperity. The Federal Reserve system is based upon perpetual debt, and it is not sustainable because it steals wealth from the American people and puts it into the pockets of a few. This is all very good news, and so you may be wondering how this plays into your forex trading.

The dollar will continue to go down so long as our war is not stopped, and so for the next few months until the Bush Administration is forcibly removed from office or until they simply fade away to be replaced by a new leader, there will still be a downwards trend for the USD.

After our war ends due to internal political pressure from our benevolent leaders as well as financial pressure from the Japanese, many Japanese leaders are discussing the possibility of using their foreign dollar reserves to create a global humanitarian mission where they can bring knowledge and modern telecommunications access to countries that have not been able to provide it for themselves.

As this happens the American economy will regain strength because our trade balance will become much more sustainable. So ultimately for your forex trading, the downwards trend for the dollar will continue until these big benevolent changes occur, afterwards the American economy (as well as the global economy as a whole) will regain its stability.

The currency market is particularly sensitive to market news, such as the non-farm payroll data announcement. Volatility during these periods of news announcements is notoriously high, and fortunes are literally made and lost in a short time span of a few minutes.

With these characteristics, it’s no wonder that many retail Forex traders pay extra attention to the latest daily news updates… their trading account depends on it!

Who Are News Traders?

News traders are people who trade exclusively on economic news announcements. Their aim is to make the most profit in the shortest time possible. It’s not unusual to have a market movement of a hundred pips of more, just 5 minutes after the news is announced.

News trading is a highly risky style of Forex trading, and is generally not recommended for novice traders. Amateurs who think news trading is a way to make easy money are often taught an expensive lesson by the market.

What If I Don’t Want To Trade The News?

For those who do not wish to trade the news, they often wonder if they should pay attention to the daily market news at all.

In my humble opinion, the answer is generally ‘no’.

The fundamental daily news is usually slowly incorporated into the market price, so a competent technical trader will already be able to take into account any unusual changes in price action.

However, there are of course exceptions to this rule of thumb.

While you probably don’t need to pay a lot of attention to the every-day news announcements, there are some economic news data release dates that you should avoid trading in.

These are the same economic news announcements that the news traders trade on. Some examples include the non-farm payroll, ISM manufacturing and FOMC meeting announcements.

The high price volatility experienced during these periods are best avoided by most traders… it’s better to keep your capital protected than to risk it on highly risky trades.

Forex price movement - how and why exactly do prices move? Simple enough you might think but most traders have no idea about how and why prices really move if they did 95% of forex traders wouldn’t lose! Let’s look at a simple equation for market movement.

Here it is but its simplicity is deceptive…

Supply and Demand Fundamentals/News + Investor Perception = Market Price

Now here are some mistakes traders make by not fully understanding the above - If you believe any of the following, you can say goodbye to your equity:

- You can day trade and win
- Markets move to a scientific theory
- Market tops and bottoms can be predicted in advance
- Buy low sell high is a good way to trade
- You rely on trading expert news stories
- You try and trade the fundamentals

ALL the above will see you lose - let’s look at why:

Firstly, trading is an odds game, as humans are illogical and millions make the price.

Their all governed by emotions - you cannot hope to predict what they will do and furthermore - you can’t do so in short time frames and that’s why day traders lose.

Trading the fundamentals is not possible because they are unimportant - its how their perceived that determines the course of events and the price.

So how do you win?

As a forex trader forget about predicting its simply hoping or guessing there is no scientific theory of market movement - if there were, we would all know the price in advance and there would be no market. Forget vendors who tell you they can predict if they could they would be rich and wouldn’t need your money!

Trading is an odds game but that doesn’t mean you can’t win you can.

The easiest way to trade is to use forex charts and simply follow forex price action, trading the reality of price change - no hoping or guessing, just trading the facts.

Fundamental news is discounted instantly in the price and you will see that on the charts - but you will see something more, how investors perceive the fundamentals and that’s the beauty of forex charts.

You see the whole picture as it is, no hoping or guessing just the reality, as it is.

Now human psychology may not be wholly predictable - but human nature is constant and this will show in repetitive high odds chart patterns which occur again and again.

If you spot and act upon them you can make money.

So when looking at forex price movement remember, it is not the fundamentals that are important or the news - but how investors as a whole perceive the news.

If you understand the above, you will see why simply following charts and acting on the reality of price change can make you money.

In this post, I will discuss 2 of the most common Forex trading mistakes made by traders.

First mistake - Scalping

Compared to all other types of trading (ex. swing trading), scalping is by far the hardest to master. Many amateur traders make the mistake of thinking that by trading in the very short term, they increase the probability of profiting from a trade. It’s intuitive to think that small, quick trades are easier to profit from, isn’t it?

In the Forex market however, the reverse is true.This is because of the volatile nature of the Forex market; market prices can fluctuate rather violently without any good reason at all. Although you risk smaller amounts of your capital when scalping, you’re actually dramatically increasing the probability that your stop losses will be hit.

Although I’ve personally met people who are proficient scalpers, it might do you well to know that they are highly trained and experienced traders. I’ve never met a beginner trader who was successful at scalping. If you want to try your hand at Forex trading, do try to trade on larger time frames such as using hourly or daily charts instead. Avoid trading using minute charts at all costs!

Second mistake – Trading The News

This is one of the most appealing schools of thought among the Forex trading community. Who wouldn’t like to benefit from a quick 100 pip gain in less than 10 minutes? This is the equivalent of roughly $1,000.

The allure of quick, one time profits is what drives many traders to try their hand at news trading. Personally however, I would strongly discourage most inexperienced traders to news trade.

The reason is simple: the institutional traders (i.e. the big players) have all the advanced technology and knowledge in the world to beat you at this game. Their news feeds are faster, and they have their own in-house economists and currency strategists that have been carefully hand-picked from the top Ivy League schools.

What do retail traders have? A top-notch desktop computer with a high-speed internet connection at best? Even their broker platforms won’t be able to keep up with the volatility that occurs during news announcements. And not to mention the larger spreads that retail traders pay compared to the institutional traders.

To be a rich retail trader, you’ll have to work on your strengths and avoid your vulnerabilities. News trading is definitely not for the average retail trader, so please pick your battles wisely.

Forex trading is often a very lonely profession which is why so many traders like visiting forex forums and chatting with other like-minded traders. However, what a lot of people don’t realize is that forex forums can actually be responsible for making a dent in your bankroll.

Why?

Well there are a few reasons for this.

Firstly, if you visit any forex forum you will nearly always find that there are some posters who love broadcasting their trading positions to the other forum members and enjoy the attention they get from their loyal followers. It’s basically an ego trip. If they make a few good calls, then they seem to get instant adoration and inexperienced traders will start to follow them and even copy their positions.

This is a trap that you really don’t want to fall into. The minute you find yourself copying other peoples’ positions is the time when you should take a step back and have a good look at yourself.

You may not even realize you’re doing it. For example, you may consider taking a position but decide to go to the forums to see if other traders are taking the same position, for confirmation. It’s important to note that just because lots of people on the forum are all taking long positions, for example, the price will not necessarily go up.

I was on a forum last week and nearly all of the regular forum members were going long on the GBP/USD. However all of my indicators were indicating that we were heavily overbought, and despite being in the majority I traded using my own tried and trusted system, took a short position, and as I write this article the GBP/USD is about 210 points lower.

So always make your own trading decisions and then you only have yourself to blame. Don’t look to others for advice or confirmation.

Similarly, on the other side of the coin, you don’t want to be the one who goes onto forums and boasts about how good a trader you are and announce your positions to everyone. This may boost your ego but it can affect your trading.

For example, if you announce your latest position to the forum and it quickly moves against you, you may disregard your normal stop loss policy and stay in a position longer than necessary in order to justify your position to your loyal followers. This could lead to even further losses.

So please don’t become one of these people. After all do you really think the best traders in the world hang around on forex forums? No of course they don’t, they’re too busy making money.

Finally there is one other way in which forex forums can damage your wealth and that’s by following systems given on forums. Sure you can pick up some great ideas, but be careful about jumping in and blindly following the latest new trading system.

Always be sure to thoroughly back-test any system you may come across and either use a demo account to test it out for a period of time or use very small stakes.

Forex forums can be a very valuable resource for learning new trading ideas and strategies, but be careful about blindly following any one system or poster, and try not to start broadcasting your positions as soon as you achieve any level of success.