2Bull Forex Blog

An essential element of your forex trading education is using valid support and resistance to time your trading signal. Here we are going to walk you through a live example of how to use it properly.

The currency we are going to look at on our forex charts is the Japanese yen.

If you look at the yen daily chart, you will see a very valid resistance level at the 108.00 level and since March of this year there have been numerous tests of it, over 20 and yet the dollar has failed to close above it supported by momentum.

This resistance is very valid because there have been so many tests. Resistance or support gain validity

- The more times they are tested and hold
- The more different time frames and the wider apart they are
- The traders who trade the market and the news sees the level as significant

Watch the level then confirm the Trade

The way to trade it is to wait for the rise but DON’T sell until you see momentum turn down and two great indicators for timing your trade are the stochastic and the Relative Strength Index. Simply wait for the level to be tested and wait for them to turn down.

Never just assume a level will hold, wait for confirmation via momentum indicators.

Once this occurs you can be short and you know when you’re wrong - if prices close above resistance.

This simple method of trading into valid resistance or support works and providing you time your entry correctly with momentum indicators, it can make a lot of money.

We have used this simple strategy to clear thousands of pips profits, this year and we have kept it simple, nothing complicated about it but it doesn’t mean it simple strategies can’t make money they can.

While resistance holds you keep doing it sell into the level and take profits when the dollar becomes oversold, then wait for the next test.

Follow Reality of Price Change

If the price breaks up and closes strongly above resistance, the odds will favour further strength in the dollar.

Simple and Effective

Sure it’s simple but it can be very profitable and the above is a good example of a low risk, high reward way of trading into valid resistance.

You don’t need to do anything else, than trade the reality of price change on the charts and if you do and you confirm your moves this simple forex trading strategy can make a lot of money.

There are many trading theories which believe in mathematical order in the market and you can predict the future. Human nature is constant and therefore if you know the law of market movement you can make money but what are the best scientific theories?

The three major ones are those based on Gann and Elliot wave and the Fibonacci number sequence.

They all claim to be scientific but to be a scientific theory, they must conform to the following:

- Be totally objective with a set of rules to follow
- Work all the time.

This is the definition of a scientific theory and none of the above are.

Gann and Elliot wave are totally subjective and while you get various levels you can buy or sell to with Fibonacci, they certainly don’t work every time!

Markets are not scientific and while human nature is constant, it cannot be predicted with scientific accuracy and that’s a fact.

This is why all the scientific theories and complex computers today have not increased the amount of winners. Indeed, if a scientific theory did work we would have no market, as everyone would know the price in advance.

How to Win Without Science

A great book which any speculator can learn from is the Zurich Axioms.

This book devised a set of rules which a group of Swiss bankers, who used them to get rich and it lays out a number of rules and principles for speculators to follow and one of them is on forecasts which is very true.

“Human behavior cannot be predicted. Distrust anyone who claims to know the future, however dimly”.
As the books points out if astrologers were always right they would all be rich and there not. Predicting markets is actually doomed to failure just like astrology and the book makes clear:

“Do not look for order where order does not exist.” And the book goes on…

“The Historian’s trap is a particular kind of orderly illusion. It is based on the age-old but entirely unwarranted belief that history repeats itself. People who hold this belief - which is to say perhaps ninety-nine out of every hundred people on earth - believe as a corollary proposition that the orderly repetition of history allows for accurate forecasting in certain situations…. Don’t fall into this trap. It is true that history repeats itself sometimes, but most often it doesn’t, and in any case it never does so in a reliable enough way that you can prudently bet money on it”.

In hindsight you can prove anything and this is known as the chartist illusion

“Beware the chartist’s illusion - it is characteristic of human minds to perceive links of cause and effect where none exist”

You can of course when you have all the facts at your disposal see things as orderly when there not.

Traders do this all the time - they test rules and parameters over a section of data and bend rules to fit it and think it will work in real life but of course the exact data sequence never repeats again and they lose.

Ever wonder why all those forex robots sold online, never make money in real life - despite having great track records?

The answer is the track record is a simulation backwards which appears logical- but when it’s traded going forward, it collapses.

Why You Can Make Money

Despite the fact markets don’t move to science you can still make money from them, if you see them as an odds game.

If you took a game of poker as an example of an odds game and talk to the best poker players, they know they are not going to win every hand - but they are confident of winning longer term. Why?

Because they know that if they bet on high odds hands and fold or pass by low odds hands, they will win longer term.

If you take trading forex who are some of the top traders in the world?

You guessed it - poker players!

So forget about predicting and science, see forex as an odds game and trade the reality of price change sure you wont win every trade but you will win more than you lose and this can mean huge profits.

Don’t look for perfection look to make money.

There are lot of forex robots for sale but most will soon wipe your equity out but there is a tiny minority Forex Robots - A Checklist to Follow to Find the Small Minority That Win which win and we will look at a checklist you should follow, to find them and get the right one for you…

Here is your checklist for finding the best forex robots.

1. Get a Real Track Record

Most of the forex trading systems online fail on this basic point - they don’t have one! All they have is back tested simulations on data and of course we can all make money doing this. You will normally see the words “simulated”, “hypothetical” and in “hindsight”. Lets be clear you are buying a trading system on the basis that it will make you money and if has never been traded why would you trust it?

If you pass by the simulated systems you already have got rid of 90% +. When looking for a real time track record two or three years is the minimum period you should consider remember, anyone can fluke a few weeks or a month and this time period means nothing.

2. Risk Tolerance

You will normally find that a system will lose for weeks on end, that’s just the way forex trading is so make sure you prepared for this and look at the biggest loss and time to recovery - i.e. if you joined the system on the worst possible day.

3. You Need to Know The Logic

Never by a system which doesn’t have the logic disclosed. Ideally, it should tell you the exact rules and parameters used and the logic behind them. This will give you the confidence to keep executing the trading system through periods of losses until you hit a home run.

You need to maintain discipline of execution and make sure the trades are placed exactly as the system dictates. If you can’t do this with confidence and discipline you don’t have a system.

4. Curve Fitting

The reason most simulated trading systems fail is because they are curve fitted. This means the rules are bent to fit the data. As no two pieces of data ever come around in the same price sequence again the system collapses in real time trading. Even proven systems get curve fitted. The system makes money, so the vendor offers new improved rules but don’t fall for this, use the original ones, curve fitting sees systems fail.

5. Best Time Periods

The idea of an automated trading system is to save time and you should really use a swing trading or long term trend following system - never a day trading system. Day trading is based on logic that doesn’t work and anyway, you will never find a real track record so steer clear.

Follow the above 5 points and you will find the best forex robots and then you can choose one that fits your risk criteria. Forex robots do work but don’t forget they will lose for long periods to so you must have the confidence and the discipline to take these loses, until profits come.

There are some good automated forex trading systems and the above information will help you to find one which will lead you to currency trading success.

If you are thinking about trading, you need to consider that 95% of traders lose and if you want to win, check that your forex trading strategy contains all the elements below, if it doesn’t you will end up with the vast majority of losers…

1. Your System

Most traders think they can simply take someone else’s system and follow it blindly and don’t question the logic and here are 3 sure fire ways to lose doing this.

a. Following a Forex robot with a simulated track record
b. Following a day trading or forex scalping system
c. Following a scientific system or one that is supposed to predict prices

The above are what the majority of new traders do and they lose.

Your system means one that you understand from top to bottom and can have confidence in and one that you can follow with discipline. You need a system based on sound logic you understand.

Sure you can take elements of other peoples systems but you must understand why it gives you a trading edge.

2. What Edge Does Your System Give You?

Ask yourself this question:

Why should I succeed when 95% of traders lose?

If you can’t give a good reason of why your system, gives you an edge over 95% of losing traders, you simply don’t have one, so continue your forex education until you do.

3. Money Management Rules

Most people think money management is simply placing a stop but it isn’t.

If you believe it is, you are going to lose. If you don’t get your money management right in your strategy you are gong to lose.

You need to have money management strategy for the whole account, you also need to deal with standard deviation of price or volatility, you also need to have reasonable equity to start with and decide leverage on the account.

How many traders start with couple of hundred of bucks, leverage up 100:1 or so and get blown out the water?

The majority, they think money management looks after itself and it doesn’t.

Money management is the base on which your success is built and needs plenty of attention.

4. What Losing Period are You Expecting and Can You be Disciplined?

To win you are going to have to cope with losing periods and forget the rubbish you read online, that these periods don’t last long or you can trade with 90% accuracy - its fantasy.

Even the best systems will lose for weeks on end and you have to have the discipline to keep going, through the losing period until you hit a home run.

Most traders simple cannot do this, throw in the towel early and if they would have hung on they would have been rewarded with profits.

Understand this - if you want to win at forex trading you need to lose to win.

If you cant take execute a trading system with discipline, you don’t have one!

A Road Map to Success

Most traders lose at forex trading because they think its easy or are to lazy to do the basics and the fact is, forex trading is not easy as most traders lose.

Of course for the trader prepared to put effort in to their forex trading strategy, the rewards can be huge or even life changing.

You need a simple system, you can have confidence in and trade with money management and discipline and this is the cornerstone of your success.

f you understand the above you could soon be making big profits in the worlds most exciting and lucrative business opportunity. Work smart, keep it simple and adopt the mindset to win and currency trading success can be yours.

Today, with powerful Pc’s and software traders work out complex formulas based upon the scientific theory of market movement and predicting prices in advance but which are the best and how effective are they? Let’s find out.

Forex prices are determined by humans and human nature is constant so there must be a scientific theory that predicts this and all you need to do is work out to the formula.

The Flaws in Scientific Theories and How to Win

Many theories exist and you will probably be familiar with Gann, Elliot wave and Fibonacci and many traders use them but there not scientific. A scientific theory by definition should work all the time and none of the above do furthermore, they are not objective and that is the definition of a scientific theory.

Of course there is no scientific theory and common sense tells you this. If there were such a theory there would be no market, as we would all know the answer in advance! Don’t be dismayed though you can win - if you see the market for what is an odds game.

Why You can Win Trading the Odds

Human behaviour is not scientific but it is constant and while you cannot get every move right, if you trade spikes of greed and fear where humans push prices to far up or down, you can win.

An odds based system based around forex trend following is easy to understand and will be robust sure you wont catch every trend - but a forex trend follower can lose 70% of the time and still make money, if you hold your winners and cut losers quickly - this is the basis of forex trading success.

Don’t Seek Perfection aim to make Money!

In forex trading there is no such thing as perfection or a trading system which works all of the time but you can make a lot of money and that is your aim. So don’t believe anyone who tells you they have found the scientific theory of market movement - they haven’t. Focus on getting the right forex trading education and trade the odds to w