2Bull Forex Blog

You know, when an economy does start to recover, it’s not widely known at the time. In fact, the news will still be as full of “gloom and doom” as ever even when it starts.

So you won’t know when the economy is turning by listening to the nightly news. So what can you look to?

Well, here is one widely watched economic barometer that institutional investors have used throughout the years. What is it? Copper

Now you may think, “What in the world does the price of copper tell us about the economy?”

Here’s why. Institutions say that “Copper has a PhD in Economics. Why? Because this commodity is so broadly used (in the building of homes and offices for plumbing and wiring to the building of computers and automobiles). You can literally see the broad demand put upon this commodity as the demand starts to “tick up” for these goods.

With other leading indicators “ticking up” today such as Housing Starts and Building Permits, I took a new look at copper as well to see what I saw.

Copper breaks its downtrend and heads higher for the first time in almost a year!

As you can see from the chart above, copper has not only broken its downtrend but also its sideways range and is preparing to head higher. Now how can that happen if there’s not more “copper buying” going on around the world.

On top of this, it seems that crude oil prices have finally stabilized too, and once oil prices finally hold above $50 a barrel again, it should be another “confirming sign” that the global economy has BEGUN the process of turning around.

I say “begun” because it takes time for the U.S. and global economy to be in “full bloom” once again. Therefore, the news will continue to be dire for a while longer.

But what does this mean for you? It means that if you are a long term stock investor, these could be better times to be a buyer (with cash, no margin buying) of ETFs and mutual funds if you have at least a 5-10 year time horizon for the investment.

For the currency investor, it means that you need to be on guard for the “dollar party” to come to an end once the world finally does realize that the global economy is turning. This could help the AUD/USD, NZD/USD and EUR/USD for instance as dollars are sold and commodities and inflation bloom once again.

The former two pairs do best when commodities stabilize and boom once again…and the latter does good simply when the U.S. dollar does not do good since it acts as the best “anti-dollar” out there.

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Many people are happy when the Aussie dollar is strong because it means that it’s a sign of a strong economy – mostly, anyway. There is a downside though. Life is rarely ideal across all business sectors.

So business people who are depending on tourists to make their money are in for a disappointment, as tourists from overseas tend to look elsewhere for their holiday destinations. Likewise, exporters find they are not making as much as they did as the cost of their goods goes up in comparison to other countries. In some cases it can simply be because of the difference in interest rates between countries. Investors know that when the interest rates are higher, their returns will also be higher, so this creates a demand for the currency.

When the dollar is strong, online shoppers can get bargains shopping overseas – so long as they watch out for the freight charges. A strong dollar also means that our fuel prices are not as high as they might otherwise be. Australians going overseas are happy when the dollar is strong because they get more bang for their buck. Their money is worth that bit extra, making overseas holidays a tempting option.

There is a downside though. Life is rarely ideal across all business sectors. When the dollar is strong, online shoppers can get bargains shopping overseas – so long as they watch out for the freight charges. A strong dollar also means that our fuel prices are not as high as they might otherwise be.

Australians going overseas are happy when the dollar is strong because they get more bang for their buck. Their money is worth that bit extra, making overseas holidays a tempting option. So business people who are depending on tourists to make their money are in for a disappointment, as tourists from overseas tend to look elsewhere for their holiday destinations. Likewise, exporters find they are not making as much as they did as the cost of their goods goes up in comparison to other countries.

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